Friday 29 April 2011

Palestinians invited to sign unity deal next week

GAZA, April 29 (Reuters) - Egypt has invited Palestinian leaders to Cairo next week for the signing of a unity agreement that would end a rivalry among ruling factions, Palestinian officials said on Friday.
The Egyptian-brokered deal, announced unexpectedly on Wednesday, calls for forming a new government acceptable to both Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah faction, which is dominant in the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip Hamas's rulers.
Israel denounced the agreement, saying Abbas could not be a peace partner if he mends ties with Hamas, an Islamist group with a charter calling for Israel's destruction.
Western powers received cooly news of the unity deal, saying it was an important step, but made clear they expect any new administration to accept international demands, which include the recognition of Israel and a renunciation of violence.[1]

hm! As we can see after revolution Egypt changed its politics in the Middle East region. That's a second step which couldn't be seen during Mubarak was in power. First one as i remember was the renewal of diplomatic negotiations with Iran. So, can it really be true that Egypt started to renew ties with 'bad guys'?! Oh, yes! It seems to be true...

"According to the Pew Research Center, 89% of Egyptians say a post-Mubarak government "should follow the values and principles of Islam." And 62% want laws to enforce Shariah — the barbaric legal code practiced in much of the Mideast.
This may come as quite a jolt to the romantics in the Western press who expected liberalism to flower from Tahrir Square. But we're not the least surprised.
Pew's poll — based on 1,000 face-to-face interviews with Egyptian adults in April — merely confirms a similar one last spring. As we noted during the riots, Pew found that 84% favor the death penalty for people who leave the Muslim faith; 82% support stoning adulterers; and 77% think thieves should have their hands cut off."[2]
no comments...
And, as for me, the main question is who will came to power in Egypt and, of course, what role Egypt will have in the Muslim world.

Thursday 28 April 2011

A Few Words on the ‘Great Man-made River’


A Few Words on the ‘Great Man-made River’

The Libyan war, which started two months ago, is still riveting world’s attention; till now Internet space is excited about nuances and process of this war. Speaking candidly, about month ago I also couldn’t hold myself from making an attempt to figure out possible consequences of this war event; today, I think, it’s time to write something about the Kaddafi regime which is already Libyan past.
Lyrical digression or thoughts about Libya: Unfortunately, we all became dependant on Mass Media and Libya’s war is not exclusion: the long confrontation between this country and western world made specific image of this country in the world. However, we should give the due to Gaddafi regime: “It is one of the few countries where the natural resources were used directly for increasing people's living standard without encumbering the country with debts or loans - in spite of the indisputable political 
negatives Libya has the highest Human Development Index  (HDI=0.755 as of 2010, 53rd place in the world, evaluated by the United Nations based on life expectancy, education and gross domestic product per capita) among all African countries, even higher than some countries within EU and NATO (Bulgaria: 0.743, Turkey: 0.679 as of 2010). That's something undoubtedly worth paying an attention, regardless of all the objections which the western society may have to the specific form of socialism ruling in this Mediterranean country.[1]” But, unfortunately, all this numbers are ignored during the description of Socialist People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya. I think, it’s time to see some really interesting and important steps that Libya made before the revolution of 2011, and in this post I will tell a few words about The Great Man-made River– the eighth world’s wonder as "another miracle in the desert."[2]. Also it “has been described as the "eighth wonder of the world". It carries more than five million cubic metres of water per day across the desert to coastal areas, vastly increasing the amount of arable land. The total cost of the huge project is expected to exceed $25 billion (US).”[3]. The main idea of this post is to point out some economical aspects of the Great Man-made River project; but before this I think it would be better to write some information on history of this project.


History of Saharan water reservoirs

So, speaking in short, Sahara Desert wasn’t area which has only sand with out drop of water. “Remnants of an ancient lake existing there between 750 thousand and 420 thousand years ago were found in south-western part of Libya (Fezzan). Scientists named it Megafezzan - with a surface area of 130 thousand km2 (50,193 sq mi) it is definitely worth of bearing its name (compare with the largest of the Great Lakes - Lake Superior, with the surface of 82,000 km2 [31,700 sq mi]). Local sediments are an extraordinary source of information about the climate changes in Sahara during the last 750 thousand years”[4]. “It is also noteworthy that this water originated mostly from the last ice age (therefore, the term "fossil"), and has accumulated in the reservoirs approximately 1 million - 10 000 years ago, when the climate was generally wet, rich in rainfall, and sufficient for maintaining a complex river system.[5]
Geological activity caused the up thrust of mountainous formations (Jabal Nefussa and Jabal Al Akhdar) and the associated downward movement formed natural underground basins. Between 38,000 and 10,000 years ago the climate of North Africa was temperate, during which time there was considerable rainfall in Libya. The excess rainfall infiltrated into porous sandstone and was trapped between layers, forming reservoirs of underground fresh-water.
In Libya there are four major underground basins, these being the Kufra basin, the Sirt basin, the Morzuk basin and the Hamada basin, the first three of which contain combined reserves of 35,000 cubic kilometers of water. These vast reserves offer almost unlimited amounts of water for the Libyan people.[6]

During the oil-searches in 1960s the water was discovered[7] and about 30 years later The Great Man-Made River Project (GMMR) would be started.

History of the project

Speaking about history of the GMMR Project development can be point out 5 main phases:
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41462000/gif/_41462932_libya_water3_map416.gif§   First phase of the work began in 1984 in the most rough and arid south-eastern region of Libya, water having been transported from the well fields containing 234 drills through 1,600 km (994 mi) long pipeline into two coastal areas. Two reservoirs have storage capacity of 20 million m3 (706 million cu ft) of water. Transport capacity reaches 2 million m3 (70.6 million cu ft) per day. Power consumption: 65 MW. First water reached its destination in 1990.    
§   Second phase brought the water finally to the Tripoli capital - 1,227 km (762 mi) long pipeline in the western part of the country is capable of transporting 2.5 million m3 (88 million cu ft) of water per day and provides inhabitants with water containing more than twenty times less salt than the previous sources.
§   Third phase extended the first phase pipeline by another 383 kilometers (238 mi) deeper into the desert, where a new well field containing another 300 drills was constructed. Seven new pumping stations transport additional 1.68 million m3 (59.3 million cu ft) of water per day, whilst the whole journey to the final reservoirs takes approximately 9 days.
§   Fourth phase is of a relatively smaller scale, and will transport quarter of million m3 (8.8 million cu ft) of water per day, using 621 kilometers (386 mi) of pipelines (plus 181 km [112 mi] of pipes within the well field itself), four pumping stations and three reservoirs.
§   Fifth phase will be the final one connecting the western and eastern transporting systems. With the pipeline being 190 kilometers (118 mi) long, transporting capacity of 0.98 million m3 (34.6 million cu ft) per day, two pumping stations, power consumption 43.6 MW, and one reservoir, it will be a smaller although important sibling of the preceding phases[8].
Amazing work, wouldn’t you say?!

Problems & Critics of the project
Among welfare fossil water brings some troubles, such as:
Radioactive Worries: the example, The Disi's (Jordan's water reserve) fossil water was recently found to contain 20 times the radiation levels considered safe for drinking. The water is contaminated naturally by sandstone, which has slowly leached radioactive contaminants over the eons[9]. Same worries is about Libyan underground water, however, there is possibility to clean this water through a simple water-softening process, though it does cost money and creates radioactive waste that must be disposed of properly, he noted.
            Ecologists have objections to draining the nonrenewable water resources (counterargument of the Libyan government is both the volume of the reserves - with the current rate the aquifers in Libya itself will sustain for more than one thousand years - as well as uselessness of leaving the water in aquifers, having negligible value if left untouched).
Politicians point out the possible future conflicts among the neighbouring countries due to the reciprocal draining of the aquifers which naturally do not obey the political borders (counterargument of Libya is its panafrican approach and suggested cooperation with the neighbouring countries, which do not use the aquifers yet).
International economists in turn criticize growing crops with water obtained in this way would be more expensive than import of foods from abroad - counterargument is the fact that 30% of water is being used for direct household usage, as well as state-of-the-art methods of economical and effective irrigation and, last but not least, the unique advantage of the food self-sufficiency and stable price of the crops obtained by irrigation employing the man-made river.[10]
So we can see that this project is criticized, but the main point, I think, is that is works and helps people survive in Sahara desert.

Economic and global aspects

Main point of this post is to show what this project was developed for. Here are some words about main goals of the GMMR:
The Great Man-Made River Project is bringing water to the people and providing water for municipal, industrial and agricultural use. The strategy of the responsible Libyan authority is aimed at increasing both crop and livestock production to a level that achieves the highest possible rate of self-sufficiency and reduces dependence on imports from foreign markets to the lowest possible level. It also aims at increasing the productive capabilities of the labor force and of the capital investments in the sector, and at producing raw materials for food processing industries[11]. So, the main goal was independency from water and agricultural import.
From my very subjective point of view, economic and global aspects of GMMR project can be divided into two parts:
The aspect number one: As was told already the project cost is $25 billion, and all money was taken only from Libyan funds – rare case in modern globalized world. The world investment practice became very popular and it works in liberal countries, but this practice doesn’t work if we are speaking about authoritarian-socialist state as was Libya during Gaddafi regime. As investment implies partnership in a possession, but Libyan government couldn’t make such step towards west.
Kaddafi regime in Libya is very interesting case: small country with a big independent income from oil industry, socialist policy and etc. And concerning Libya this project could be considered as an uncommon anti-globalization step. Globalization is a modern phenomenon of economic, cultural and other integrations, but Libya’s example is rather ‘worth exclusion’: it can show to others that countries with close economy can develop something without international help.
And we can see the reaction of this in western countries. The GMMR is world well-known project, but, unfortunately, we can’t find much objective information about it in western mass media, as the project shows possibilities of anti-globalization movements. In one Libyan article we can find such words: “The West refuses to recognize that a small country, with a population no more than four million, can construct anything so large without borrowing a single cent from the international banks.”[12]
The aspect number two: economical possibilities that can provide the GMMR are a big blow to a water business. “The cost of one cubic meter of water [received from the GMMR] equals 35 cents. The cubic meter of desalinized water is $3.75. Scientists estimate the amount of water to be equivalent to the flow of 200 years of water in the Nile River.[13]
And next:
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvcrzqKtTEaZHplUjIRonao8Z1exuvgm9GO0tWq38db7K2taSpXRC2vGSi_C4kM5JHvZTQLn09RkY32Q3pFGsVHTn8h5NQqfTB0RKxUCh2Lczp591L4V7MXsbUrXsl4ZDAhdkbqmw8HA3r/s320/cost_comparing.gifAmount of water in cubic meters which could be provided for one Libyan dinar, based on scientific research. Studies proved the man-made river being the most economic approach, which provides more than ten times of water for one dinar compared to various alternative technologies (e.g., undersea pipeline from Southern Europe, transport by water tankers, sea water desalination etc).[14]
As you can see on a picture with ‘drops’ for one Libyan dinar people can buy 9m3 of water. The independency from import of the water could provide state independency form other word.
I'm interesting what prices will be if somebody privatize this project....


Afterword
            From my point of view this project is one of the best things Gadaffi made form Libya, and we should give him recognition for this contribution in Libyan economic and social life’s change…
Initially, authorities intended to drill the wells directly in the aquifer areas and thought of creating whole new cities and irrigated agricultural areas there. However, due to the necessity of transferring high numbers of inhabitants and building infrastructure in a poorly accessible terrain this possibility was soon abandoned as being economically unfeasible. Therefore, in concordance with a bit reformulated old Arab saying "If Muhammad will not come to the mountain, then the mountain must go to Muhammad", the project of the man-made river of hitherto unprecedented dimensions was decided to be realized in 1983 in order to bring the fresh water from inside the deep desert to the people at the coast. Nevertheless, it was inevitable to overcome several obstacles -  considerable distance between the aquifers and the coast, rough desert conditions, elevation differences in the terrain, corrosion of the reinforced concrete, and many more[15].
           
And in the end I want to propose you some image I made few days ago via Google Earth:
1) the year of 1972 and 2004:
 





 drills


fields

[1] http://www.boinc.sk/clanky/libyas-great-man-made-river
[2] http://www.galenfrysinger.com/man_made_river_libya.htm
[3] http://www.ethiopianreview.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=27590&p=150954
[4] http://www.boinc.sk/clanky/libyas-great-man-made-river
[5] http://www.boinc.sk/clanky/libyas-great-man-made-river
[6]http://tpartyus2010.ning.com/profiles/blog/show?id=3180617%3ABlogPost%3A71032&commentId=3180617%3AComment%3A70937&xg_source=activity
[7] http://www.americanscientist.org/science/content1/9585
[8] http://www.boinc.sk/clanky/libyas-great-man-made-river
[9] http://www.onepakistan.com/news/local/karachi/43609-Fossil-water-becoming-valuable-fossil-fuel.html
[10] http://www.boinc.sk/clanky/libyas-great-man-made-river
[11] http://www.goumbook.com/4729/libyas-great-man-made-river-project/
[12] http://abundanthope.net/pages/Political_Information_43/Virtually-unknown-in-the-West-Libya-s-water-resources_printer.shtml
[13] http://www.galenfrysinger.com/man_made_river_libya.htm
[14] http://www.boinc.sk/clanky/libyas-great-man-made-river
[15] http://www.boinc.sk/clanky/libyas-great-man-made-river

Wednesday 27 April 2011

Pro Gaddafi Rally in Benghazi April 25

oh! that isn't something I can see on TV

UN Security Council members failed to agree the statement on Syria

The UN secretary general has condemned Syria for using tanks and live ammunition against protesters.
Calling for an independent investigation into recent killings, Ban Ki-moon said Syrian authorities had an obligation to respect human rights.
UN Security Council members have so far failed to agree a joint statement. [1]

but why?! and here is the answer: as we all remember, Russia and China were neutral about Libya's 'problem'; however, in Russian society this step was considered as a big mistake in foreign policy. So, and this respect, Russia and China won't make one mistake twice. UN Security Council won't agree a joint statement and, maybe, there is possibility to use NATO forces, as it was in Iraq. Moreover, it becoming obvious that the Syrian so-called 'humanitarian intervention' might be infringement of Russian and Chinese business and military interests.

Tuesday 26 April 2011

Some news from Muslim World

Danish cartoonist who drew The Prophet is being tried in a Jordan court

A Jordanian court has begun blasphemy proceedings against Danish artist Kurt Westergaard for a controversial cartoon he drew of the Prophet Mohammed.

Spying for Iran in Bahrain

Bahrain declared a diplomat posted in the Iranian embassy in Manama persona non grata, and ordered him to leave within 72 hours due to his alleged links with a Kuwait spy ring, Bahrain’s official news agency reported on Tuesday.
According to Al Arabiya’s correspondent at UN headquarters in New York, the report says: “Evidence confirms that Bahraini elements are being trained in Hezbollah camps specifically established to train assets from the Gulf.”

Al-Qaeda 'Afghan number two' Abdul Ghani killed - Nato

International forces in Afghanistan say they have killed their number-two insurgent target in the country - senior al-Qaeda leader Abdul Ghani.

US evacuating Syria embassy

The United States has ordered embassy family members and some non-emergency personnel to leave Syria, citing the “uncertainty and volatility” of a crackdown on protesters there.

The State Department’s directive early Tuesday, along with a travel warning telling US citizens to leave the country, followed another day of violent attacks on protesters by Syrian security forces. At least 26 people in Deraa were reported killed on Monday in assaults by Syrian tanks and troops.

Egypt reaffirms support for GCC

In the wake of an unexpected postponement of his visit to the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf States, Prime Minister Essam Sharaf of Egypt said that there was no tension in relations between his country and the UAE. He also said the security of the Gulf Cooperation Council states was a “red line” for Egypt.

In a statement following his talks in Riyadh with King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz of Saudi Arabia, Mr. Sharaf said: “There is no problem between Egypt and the UAE, and my visit will be rescheduled later.”
Speaking of rapprochement with Iran with whom Egypt has renewed diplomatic links after a gap of 30 years, Mr. Sharaf said: “We want to turn a new page in our relations with Iran, but do not accept interference in GCC’s domestic affairs.”

Voting for Saudi women?

Women in Saudi Arabia showed a great deal of tenacity recently at municipal voting centers where they showed up to register for their right to vote. But they were largely disappointed because female names are not yet listed in the electoral system. Nevertheless, they seem to be stepping up efforts to gain adult franchise for women in all walks of Saudi society.

The desert kingdom held its first nationwide polls in 2005 since the state’s formation in 1932; but only eligible men were allowed to vote in the municipal elections. The second elections are scheduled for September, and Saudi women seem eager to get a head start on the registration process.


Saturday 23 April 2011

Libya: from the political conflict to ethnic one

Libya crisis: Misrata tribes 'may fight rebels'

Tribes loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi have said that if the army cannot drive rebels from the besieged port city of Misrata, they will, a senior official says.
Deputy Foreign Minister Khaled Kaim said the army had tried to keep civilian casualties low but the tribes would not show the same restraint.
Colonel Gaddafi's forces have been pounding Misrata for weeks.
Meanwhile, Nato forces carried out more air strikes on the capital, Tripoli.
The Libyan government says three people were killed by the strikes.
Journalists were shown a concrete bunker near Col Gaddafi's Bab al-Azizia compound that received two hits early on Saturday.[1]


Thursday 21 April 2011

"Hopes of Al Qaeda’s demise are proving premature" by Al Arabiya news

Of course it was very "premature" to forget about Al Qaeda! 
"Al Qaeda and its various militant affiliates have been relegated in recent months to statements of support as protesters across the Middle East and North Africa demand greater freedom and an end to authoritarian rule. If anything, empathy for Al Qaeda’s violent, militant version of Islam appeared to have dissipated as youthful protesters challenged authoritarian leaders and forced the presidents of Tunisia and Egypt to resign".[1]

There is other thing that I'm very interesting in: Why do journalists always speak about Al Qaeda if there are so many other terrorist organization on Middle East and North Africa, of course they are well connected; but, it is hardly doubtful that Al Qaeda became a brand of Sunni terror movement in the world, but the problem is not this organization but ideology... And by using this brand, journalists and politicians simply do concept shift, something like stereotype.

US Navy dislocation

April 20: US Navy dislocation



Tuesday 19 April 2011

Meet British military officers in Libya!

Oh! Amazing!
"British military officers will be sent to Libya to advise rebels fighting Colonel Muammar Gaddafi's forces, the UK government has said.
The BBC understands 10 officers will provide logistics and intelligence training in a UK and French operation.
Mr Hague said it was compatible with the UN resolution on Libya, which ruled out foreign military ground action.
He stressed that the officers would not be involved in any fighting and the move was needed to help protect civilians." [1]
William Hague: "This is not British ground combat forces going in... this is fully in-line with the UN resolution" [2]

I think, it is to late to speak about legality of this step, I jast want to say that this is first official confirmation of the ground support for Libyan rebels.

Iran, Egypt renewing ties?

Today Alarabia.net published an interesting news:
"Iran said Tuesday that it had appointed an ambassador to Egypt for the first time in 30 years, and that diplomatic relations between the two countries—among biggest and most influential countries of the Middle East—had been re-established".[1]
So we are becoming witnesses of renewing not only Egypt-Iranian relations, but renewing of whole Muslim world.
"Ties between Iran and Egypt were severed in 1980 following Iran’s Islamic revolution 1979 and Egypt’s recognition of Israel.
Cairo has long been an ally of the United States and Israel but since a popular uprising toppled President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, there have been signs of warming between mainly Sunni Muslim Egypt and predominantly Shiite Iran." 
[2]

NATO Secretary General's Press Conference

NATO Secretary General's Press Conference 


Great Video about Great Aspiration!
during the press conference Mr Rasmusen answered on some question about NATO's role in Libyan conflict.
So main objectives in this operation:
Yesterday the NATO foreign minister made clear the three military objectives of our mission in Libya: firstly, an end to all attacks and thread of attacks against civilians. Secondly, that will draw of all receive forces to barracks. Thirdly, an immediate humanitarian access. And we strongly endorsed the call by the contact group for Qaddafi to leave power, So, NATO is absolutely determine to continue its operation for as long as the thread against Libyan civilians and it’s impossible to imagine that this thread disappear when Qaddafi in power.




It was a good final question from Russian journalist:

Mr Rasmusen, the main reason for NATO operation in Libya is protecting civilians, so why NATO doesn’t stand up civilians in Yemen and Syria and don’t you think that the NATO operation creates the situation when authoritarian and not authoritarian regimes are motivated to obtain weapons of muss distraction as guarantee from foreign intervention?

Mr Rasmusen: We have taken action in Libya because the UN Security Council took an historic decision to adopt a resolution that lives up to the responsibility to protect. The responsibility to protect civilians against brutal and systematic attacks from their own government, own regime. And we operate in a co-ordinance with and with in the frame work of that UN Security Council a resolution. The UN Security Council applies to all countries and this resolution also mentions regular organizations like NATO so we feel a responsibility to participate in the implementation of that security come to resolution. This is a reason why we took action in Libya to live up to what the UN Security Council requested. 

I remember my lesson on rhetoric: if you don't know what to answer on the question you've asked, start answer on unimportant and small part in this question, in another words find your way to speak about and make visibility that you are speaking on theme.
So here we can see a good example of such answers: the journalist ask him about "so why NATO doesn’t stand up civilians in Yemen and Syria and don’t you think that the NATO operation creates the situation when authoritarian and not authoritarian regimes are motivated to obtain weapons of muss distraction as guarantee from foreign intervention?" But Mr Rasmusen answers on this "the main reason for NATO operation in Libya is protecting civilians", i understand that this is very complicated question and this situation around Libya can make many consequences in a future, but as for me it is very improperly to make babble on this problem.

Monday 18 April 2011

Afghanistan's fighting season

What a great statistics... after Qur'an-burning the cont-reaction in Afghanistan become stronger, and we all can see that all this situation


18 April: Two soldiers killed by gunman inside defence ministry building in Kabul
16 April: Five Nato soldiers, four Afghan soldiers and interpreter killed in suicide bombing in Jalalabad
15 April: Suicide bomber kills provincial police chief inside Kandahar's police headquarters
14 April: Three policemen killed in suicide bomb attack on training centre in Paktia province
13 April: Suicide bomber kills 10 people in an attack on tribal elders in Kunar province [1]

KavkazCenter.com about Arabic language and "strategic direction"

Few days ago I've found an interesting article on ideology of 'Caucasus Emirate' movement. This is Abu Halid's point of view on a strategic direction of cooperation of Caucasian separatists. So, as I understand there are many voices of Wahhabi ideologists for searching some help from Turkey, A.Halid calls this ideas wrong, and point out :

"The main argument of the supporters of the Ottoman language is based on the geopolitical perspective of Turkey; I believe that this is a deceptive perspective". 



One of the main mistake, that Turkey made is pro-European Union course.

"[M]odern Turkey, by fair means, or foul, is trying to sneak into the European Union. It is a secular state and this state does not defend Muslims. Even now, Turkey bans headscarves in universities; even infidel countries do not ban them. In Russia, I quietly perform my prayers in university buildings, and I have a beard.
How could you volunteer to become a vassal-state of Turkey, and in general, how can you take them to be as a basis and as an example as this country persecutes its citizens for performing the obligations of their religion - Islam?!"

Of course, it is very important remark. Turkey, as many other countries in a world, choose the democratic and pro-west orientation, in this case the traditional society should be modernized; and, of course, this modernization influence on institute of Islam in this country. And A.Halid point it out: Turkey isn't a good ally in his war against infidels.

"Another case is the Arabic world - the Arabic language is spoken by almost 350 million people, and if you believe that every Muslim should aim to study this language, then this language holds importance for 1.5 billion people, for every Muslim.
The Arabic language should be the state language for every Muslim country, as this is the language of the Quran and a means of communication amongst Muslims.
As for the puppet regimes, if recent events in Arabic countries are any indication, then Muslims in these countries are no longer passive observers, so it is inevitable that these puppet regimes will collapse.
The Arabic world strives for Islam, while Turkey strives for the European Union - so it is your choice."[1]
Beside the idea of Arabic language as the main unify factor, in his words can be seen the old idea of Pan-Islamism: consolidation of Islam umma, in this case base on language. A.Halid tries to show the strategic perspective in very well-known way, he point out political situation through a language perspective.
There is only one way for 'Caucasus Emirate' to exist: to search an ally not in geographical perspective, but in ideological.

possible crisis in EU & NATO

In one previous post of mine I tried to figure out what consequences might be because of the Libyan war; however, I didn't imagine that would such migration crisis in Europe. Moreover, as we can see, this crisis influences on internal EU relations:


Deutsche Welle: "France temporarily stopped a passenger train from neighboring Italy to prevent North African migrants from entering the country on visas issued by Italian authorities. The move highlights a growing row over migration". 

“A group of Italian and French activists on Sunday had planned to board what they dubbed "The Train of Dignity" to accompany migrants with visas into France to protest Europe's measures to shut down its borders despite the Schengen agreement. 

The French authorities said they would allow in only Tunisians with passports and the financial resources to live in France independently.

The Italian newspaper La Repubblica reported that Rome was not demanding a passport before handing out visas and was set to issue about 100 documents a day.” [1]

           
Moreover, in the web can be found more pessimistic ideas, that not only EU can experience some internal crisis, but also image of NATO can really suffer because of this operation:

              "In truth, the Libyan expedition is an Anglo-French project and has been from the beginning. Yet neither Britain nor France wants responsibility for the operation — and neither feels comfortable relying on the other. The French grumble that the American withdrawal has encouraged Moammar Gaddafi; the British think the French might now be distracted by a war in their former colony, Ivory Coast. This failure to cooperate is hardly surprising. This, after all, is the first Anglo-French military operation since the Suez escapade of 1956 — and that one ended rather badly". 
But if this historically unreliable Anglo-French coalition proves unable to sustain a long operation, what then? There is certainly no European force that can replace it. There isn’t even a European foreign policy: Years of diplomacy, debate and endless national referendums culminated, a couple of years ago, in the selection of two powerless figureheads as Europe’s “president” and “foreign minister.” Attempts to create a united European army have never moved beyond pure symbolism. If Britain and France run out of planes, fuel, money or enthusiasm, it’s over. And NATO — an organization that, I repeat, did not plan for, prepare for or even vote for the Libyan operation — will shoulder most of the blame. The use of NATO’s name, in Libya, is a fiction. But the weakening of NATO’s reputation in Libya’s wake might become horribly real. ”. [2]

Sunday 17 April 2011

Eddie Izzard about Assassins

Very Short Introduction to assassin's life:

The second chance to resolve the Libyan conflict

"WASHINGTON — The Obama administration has begun seeking a country, most likely in Africa, that might be willing to provide shelter to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi if he were forced out of Libya, even as a new wave of intelligence reports suggest that no rebel leader has emerged as a credible successor to the Libyan dictator.
The intense search for a country to accept Colonel Qaddafi has been conducted quietly by the United States and its allies, even though the Libyan leader has shown defiance in recent days, declaring that he has no intention of yielding to demands that he leave his country, and intensifying his bombardment of the rebel city of Misurata." [1]

What a great news; however, nobody did say that after his exile he can return back like ... Napoleon returned from Elba with all followed consequences. So there is a little chance for a good and long life somewhere in Africa. :-)



One more thing: “We learned some lessons from Iraq, and one of the biggest is that Libyans have to be responsible for regime change, not us,” one senior administration official said on Saturday. “What we’re simply trying to do is find some peaceful way to organize an exit, if the opportunity arises.” [2]

Good idea, but concerning Libyan war it looks like western policy divided into 2 parts or roles: one for Europe - a brute-force attack, or "physical contact" and other for US - a "good peacemaking policy".
So let's study modern diplomacy on this good example)

Saturday 16 April 2011

News on terror(2011 Apr 11 - 17)

Александр Лукашенко. Кадр телеканала НТВ
Belarus: Apr 11 (Monday) "A blast tore through a packed metro station near Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko's headquarters Monday killing at least 12 people and wounding 100 others, in a suspected act of terror. Lukashenko also ordered the head of the KGB to "immediately investigate and consider everything until the last detail. All those responsible must be found." [1]
According to State Security Committee of Belarus(KGB) was arrested 2 men who are suspected in the act of terror on metro station.
Apr 13 Lukashenko: "Crime was detected". "The main thing is that we know who and how made this act of terror; however we still don't know why it was madden. But this question also will be clear soon." [2] [3]




The State Security Committee of Belarus suggested 3 possible reasons for this act of terror: 1) Destabilization of the political and social life in Belarus. As it was tolled the terrorist wanted to bring chaos and an unsatisfying of the government. 2) The terror act was the answer from extremists organization. "One of the case of anarchy group is ending now, and we accept the idea that it (metro station event) was a revenge on KGB for this case". 3) It was made by a human with mind disease.[5] After all interrogations the last reason was chosen as a main one.

There are some analytics who argues that we should expect repressions from Belarus government, [4]
but, I think, by calling these people crazy the government made a good step for the idea of approaching repressions exploding.



Afghanistan:  Apr 13 (Wednesday) A suicide bomber has killed at least 10 people in an attack on tribal elders in eastern Afghanistan, the interior ministry has said. Pro-government tribal elder Haji Malik Zarin was killed in the blast in Kunar province near the Pakistan border. Mr Zarin, a close ally of President Karzai, died along with his son and another family member. A Taliban spokesman denied the group carried out the attack, saying that Mr Zarin had "his own enemies". President Karzai's office described the killing as a "tragic loss". He was killed as a village shura, or meeting of local elders, came to an end in Asmar district. "The suicide attacker approached them, hugged Malik Zarin and then detonated the explosives strapped to his body," district police chief Mohammad Shoaib told the AFP news agency. The attack took place when elders from two tribes - some of them former warlords - were meeting to resolve a dispute, police told the Reuters news agency. [6]

Afghanistan: Apr 16 (Saturday) Five foreign and five Afghan troops have died in an attack in eastern Afghanistan, officials say.
A Taliban suicide bomber wearing a military uniform hit an Afghan army base near the city of Jalalabad, the Afghan defence ministry said. In the two most recent incidents, the attacker was wearing an offical Afghan uniform.  [9]

Gaza Strip: "The number of Shiites is increasing in the Gaza Strip, which has a majority of Sunni population, an Iranian website reported last week. Iran, on the other hand, is irritated by a notable rise in the number of Sunnis in the Iranian southwestern province of Khuzestan, whose population has a majority of Arabs.
The conservative Asr Iran (Iran Age) Website reported that a large number of Palestinians in Gaza have converted to the Shiite doctrine within the past few years, although the enclave is controlled by the Sunni Islamist Hamas rulers".
[7]

Other news

Sudan: "Khartoum- US special envoy for Sudan, Princeton Lyman said that the issue of removing Sudan from terrorism list has a lots of details that his administration discuss moreover there is consultation on that in the congress and President Barak Obama Particularly has currently started these steps". [8]  However, 3 countries are still existing in U.S. list of the State Sponsors of Terrorism. [10]

Country Designation Date
CubaMarch 1, 1982
IranJanuary 19, 1984
SudanAugust 12, 1993
SyriaDecember 29, 1979


Wednesday 13 April 2011

Some Libyan rebel photos

Some Libyan rebel photos:












Among other heroic photos we can find and something like this:


And, of course, they aren't smoking tobacco...

Sources:
http://www.businessinsider.com/libya-rebellion-pictures-2011-3#libyan-rebels-ride-into-battle-at-brega-1
http://publicintelligence.info/libyan-rebel-photos/
http://fishki.net/comment.php?id=86675

Opium problems in Afghanistan


"Fighting the war on Afghanistan opium seems almost insurmountable, but the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, UNODC, works hard at finding ways to solve the problem. In 2000, a ban on the Taliban-led Afghanistan, which produced 75% of the world’s opium, yielded a 98% drop in the poppy production. However, when the Taliban lost control in 2001 the opium trade increased. By 2006, Afghanistan generated 94% of the world’s supply"[1].



 

Afghanistan opium poppy cultivation 1994-2007


P.S. I've found interesting news: "Russia accuses the United States of conspiring with Afghanistan's drug producers by refusing to eradicate opium plantations in the country. US marines, stationed in the opium-growing Helmand province since February, told the villagers that they do not intend to cut the production, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Sunday".[2]

Tuesday 12 April 2011

France: fingers in many African pies

France returned in NATO and wanted to make up leeway?! The Ivory Coast conflict has just resolved with France help:

“Ivory Coast's UN-recognised President, Alassane Ouattara, has urged restraint after the dramatic capture of his rival Laurent Gbagbo”[1].


And exact in this day France's foreign minister made statement where he described dissatisfaction of NATO’s role in Libya:

 “Nato is not doing enough to destroy heavy weaponry used by Muammar Gaddafi's forces in Libya, France's foreign minister has said.
Libyan civilians remain at risk, Alain Juppe said, despite an ongoing bombing campaign now led by Nato.
"Nato must play its role fully. It wanted to take the lead in operations," Mr Juppe said, saying efforts so far were "not enough".[2]

After failure of [3] African Union's proposal this statement of France's foreign minister shows only the one way out: ground operation.

Moreover, the “kavkazcenter.info” wrote interesting notes about French and other countries’ ground forces in Libya:
“"The Algerian newspaper "Al-Khaber" published a report saying that a French commando unit got lost in the desert region of Al-Hamada Al-Hamra in the south-west part of the country. According to the newspaper, they went there to prevent the flow of weapons, mercenaries and terrorists into Libya. For reasons that are unclear, Paris lost contact with the commandos and asked Algeria to provide air-space and two air force bases in order to search for the special forces soldiers," wrote the Italian newspaper.
"The aforementioned French unit is one of the many units sent by the coalition to assist the rebels. British SAS soldiers, CIA agents and, probably, special forces from Arab countries are active in this theater of war."”[4]
LA Times: “Reporting from Washington— CIA officers are on the ground in Libya, coordinating with rebels and sharing intelligence, U.S. officials say, but the Obama administration has not yet decided whether to take the further step of providing weapons to those trying to oust Moammar Kadafi.”[5]
This war became very expensive for Europe, and the stumbling block isn’t money; the main problem is political benefits, which can reach after Libyan struggle.

So, speaking truly, I’m expecting for the ground operation. Why? There are many voice against such intervention, however they doesn’t relief from the situation: conflict has no evolution nor for rebels neither for Gaddafi forces. I think, that inspired by ‘victory’ in Ivory Coast French’s government might consider that it will be other fast ‘victory’ in Libya, and they want to repeat the same scenario that was in Ivory Coast...


[1] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13044818
[2] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-13046127
[3] http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/04/201141116356323979.html
[4] http://www.kavkazcenter.com/eng/content/2011/04/08/14055.shtml
[5] http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-fg-cia-libya-20110331,0,4277132.story?track=rss

Monday 11 April 2011

Modern "Toyota War"

“Cheap and fast” are two main criteria of modern war in Africa. And Toyota became one of the symbols of such wars. We could see them during the Chadian–Libyan conflict

 






The Chadian–Libyan conflict was a state of sporadic warfare events in Chad between 1978 and 1987 between Libyan and Chadian forces. Libya had been involved in Chad's internal affairs prior to 1978 and before Muammar al-Gaddafi's rise to power in Libya in 1969, beginning with the extension of the Chadian Civil War to northern Chad in 1968. The conflict was marked by a series of four separate Libyan interventions in Chad, taking place in 1978, 1979, 1980–1981 and 1983–1987. In all of these occasions Gaddafi had the support of a number of factions participating in the civil war, while Libya's opponents found the support of the French government, which intervened militarily to save the Chadian government in 1978, 1983 and 1986[1].


[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chadian%E2%80%93Libyan_conflict







The 1987 war resulted in a heavy defeat for Libya, which, according to American sources, lost one tenth of its army, with 7,500 troops killed and 1.5 billion dollars worth of military equipment destroyed or captured. Chadian losses were 1,000 troops killed.


Of course, only because of Chadian geographical features (lay of the land) the Desert Rats[1] method was successful.

Here are pictures from today’s Libyan conflict:
Nothing has changed…

http://www.muujis.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Libyan-rebels-patrol-the-009.jpg





https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisVsD4uF6O_VWy2o_jTSRtEMBRAKVClt1nKu2W_fj032I8591uBKBLDEk8H6DeMFSHxt30rknl5-pj8ddEW7E0TxS5kOne65YjbL-L2Q4AKfd2JY8mCyt4EuLkknLPeyUcWNXczWJM6_Z4/s1600/Libyan-rebels-flee-artill-007.jpg


http://rc.kbg.me/wp-content/plugins/rss-poster/cache/ee78e_t1larg.arming.libyan.rebels.jpg


http://qualteam.tripod.com/qualteam/800_libyan_rebels_110329.jpg

http://www.armytimes.com/xml/news/2011/03/ap-libya-rebels-low-odds-033011/033011ap_libyan_rebels_800.JPG



[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_7th_Armoured_Division